Draw weight is the story: 26.8% of a 31.6% / 26.8% / 41.6% split.
A decisive result carries 73.2% against 26.8% for the draw. The gap between first and second outcome is 10.0 points, Cruzeiro ahead of Corinthians. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.9% — not a strong call. The higher-rated side expects 55.0% of the points; the other side 45.0%. The xG line reads 1.15 to 1.57. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. The rating gap itself is 100 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 47.6% / 25.5% / 27.0%. The match did not follow it. The four component numbers read 0.78, 0.99, 1.17, 0.99. Top of the distribution: Cruzeiro, 41.6%. Between best and worst outcome there is 14.8 points of daylight. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Cruzeiro holds both halves of the profile — 1.17 against 0.78 for scoring, 0.99 against 0.99 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Neither figure is thin: 27 and 27 matches respectively sit behind them. The tie closed out 1-2.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Cruzeiro edged past Corinthians 2-1 on 16 August 2026. Bruno Rodrigues opened the scoring in the 36th minute for Cruzeiro to make it 1-0. Gustavo Henrique levelled it 58 minutes into the game for Corinthians to make it 1-1. Cruzeiro regained the lead through Wanderson late on, in the 82nd minute, set up by Luciano Rodríguez, to make it 2-1. Felipe Morais (51'), Jonathan (67'), Lucas Villalba (90') and Rodrigo Garro (90') were booked. Wanderson scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Cruzeiro 100 points stronger than Corinthians. Corinthians's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive defeats in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Cruzeiro won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.