The ratings are far apart — 1541 against 1386, 155 points — and the model turns that into 24.9% / 24.8% / 50.3%.
A 25.4-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-2. A 155-point spread sits between the two figures. Both figures rest on decent samples, 24 and 26 matches. Someone wins 75.2% of the time by this model. Attack/defence pairs: 0.88/1.27 and 1.17/1.02. Higher rating: the away side. The three results cover 25.5 points. The scoreline spread is even — 1-2 on 9.5% leads, but only just. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on. Bahia holds both halves of the profile — 1.17 against 0.88 for scoring, 1.02 against 1.27 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 27.4% / 25.6% / 47.1%. The match did not follow it. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Bahia carries the largest share, 50.3%. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -114 and +41.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Chapecoense and Bahia drew 3-3 on 16 August 2026. Alejo Veliz opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 13 minutes for Bahia to make it 1-0. Giovanni Augusto levelled it in the 19th minute for Chapecoense, set up by Yago Felipe, to make it 1-1. Bahia regained the lead through Kauan Gomes (an own goal) in the 42nd minute to make it 2-1. Marcinho levelled it 48 minutes into the game for Chapecoense, set up by Giovanni Augusto, to make it 2-2. Bahia regained the lead through Nicolás Acevedo 65 minutes into the game, set up by Jean Lucas, to make it 3-2. Túlio Oliveira levelled it 71 minutes into the game for Chapecoense, set up by Giovanni Augusto, to make it 3-3. Mateo Sanabria (84'), Camilo (89') and Erick (90') were booked. Túlio Oliveira scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Bahia 155 points stronger than Chapecoense.