Rated 1538 and 1437, these two produce a 61.1% / 22.2% / 16.7% split. Mineiro holds both halves of the profile — 1.03 against 0.79 for scoring, 0.86 against 1.00 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
The leading outcome clears the second by 38.9 points. 101 points of rating separation. The home side is rated higher. The match finished 3-0. The four component numbers read 1.03, 0.86, 0.79, 1.00. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 26 and 27 rated matches respectively. A decisive result carries 77.8% against 22.2% for the draw. Spread across the three results is 44.4 points. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +38 and -63. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-0 on 13.2%. The single-scoreline output is 1-0. Mineiro carries the largest share, 61.1%. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.53 and 0.92. By expected share of the points: 72.2% and 27.8%. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Before kickoff our model had this at 54.1% / 23.9% / 21.9%. That call matched the result.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Mineiro comfortably beat Grêmio 3-0 on 16 August 2026. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Mineiro 101 points stronger than Grêmio. On current ratings the model favours Mineiro at 61.1% in this pairing, and Mineiro won this one. Mineiro won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.