A 55.8% / 23.5% / 20.7% split off ratings of 1559 and 1496. Each side owns one half of the argument — Paranaense the scoring rate at 1.15, Bragantino the conceding rate at 0.93.
Its point estimate is 1-1. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.6%. The higher rating expects 67.6% of the points, the lower 32.4%. Result on the day: 1-1. The gap between first and second outcome is 32.3 points, Paranaense ahead of the draw. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +59 and -4. The rating gap itself is 63 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. Attack/defence pairs: 1.15/0.99 and 0.94/0.93. Higher rating: the home side. A decisive result carries 76.5% against 23.5% for the draw. Expected goals sit at 1.59 against 1.26. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The distribution runs from 55.8% down to 20.7%. Both figures rest on decent samples, 26 and 26 matches.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Paranaense and Bragantino drew 1-1 on 15 August 2026. Pedro Henrique opened the scoring 67 minutes into the game for Bragantino, set up by Ariel Sant'Anna, to make it 1-0. Kerwin Vargas levelled it 75 minutes into the game for Paranaense, set up by Kevin Viveros, to make it 1-1. Eduardo Sasha (79') was booked. Kerwin Vargas scored after coming off the bench.