An unusually heavy draw share here at 26.5%.
Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +36 and +59. Santos holds a 12.3-point edge on the next outcome. A decisive result carries 73.5% against 26.5% for the draw. Before kickoff our model had this at 37.2% / 27.7% / 35.0%. The result went the other way. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 23 points. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on. xG: 1.69 to 1.54. Rounded, that is 1-1. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The four component numbers read 1.16, 0.99, 1.15, 0.99. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 10.3% — not a strong call. By expected share of the points: 56.0% and 44.0%. The underlying rates are near-identical — attack 1.16 against 1.15, defence 0.99 against 0.99. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Santos carries the largest share, 42.9%. Outcomes span 16.4 points. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 25 and 26 rated matches respectively. The away side is rated higher. Final score: 0-2.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Paranaense beat Santos 2-0 on 9 August 2026. Kevin Viveros opened the scoring inside the first 14 minutes for Paranaense to make it 1-0. Kevin Viveros added to the tally in the 26th minute for Paranaense, set up by João Victor, to make it 2-0. Adonis Frías (20') and Kevin Viveros (34') were booked. Santos's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in Brasileirão Série A 2026.