The draw carries unusual weight here, 26.1% against 29.2% and 44.7%.
No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.7%. In absolute terms: Clube do Remo 0.90/1.17, Mineiro 1.03/0.86 on attack and defence. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The higher rating expects 57.7% of the points, the lower 42.3%. Win-or-lose totals 73.9%; the draw takes the rest. The tie closed out 2-2. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Mineiro carries the largest share, 44.7%. Mineiro leads the distribution by 15.5 points over Clube do Remo. Both figures rest on decent samples, 27 and 26 matches. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. The xG line reads 1.15 to 1.62. A 119-point difference on the rating scale. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -81 and +38. Outcomes span 18.6 points. The forecast we stored before the match was 38.9% / 27.4% / 33.7%. The match did not follow it. Mineiro is ahead on each half — 1.03 to 0.90 in attack, 0.86 to 1.17 in defence. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 3-3 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.