Both components point the same way, toward Palmeiras: 1.09 to 0.89 going forward, 0.59 to 0.97 going back. On rating it is 1614 against 1470, which the model resolves to 66.6% / 20.7% / 12.7%.
The rating gap itself is 144 points, which is wide by the model's standards. The distribution runs from 66.6% down to 12.7%. Of the individual scorelines, 1-0 carries the most weight at 16.1% — 2-0 is next at 12.7%. Win-or-lose totals 79.3%; the draw takes the rest. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +114 and -30. They have met once on record — 2026, 3-1 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. In absolute terms: Palmeiras 1.09/0.59, Internacional 0.89/0.97 on attack and defence. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 65.7% / 20.9% / 13.3%. That one did not come off. The model's preferred outcome is Palmeiras at 66.6%. Point estimate: 1-0. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 27 and 26 matches. The higher-rated side expects 76.9% of the points; the other side 23.1%. Goal expectation splits 1.58 to 0.71.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Palmeiras and Internacional could not be separated in a goalless draw on 9 August 2026. Murilo Cerqueira (39'), Paulinho (52'), Braian Aguirre (70') and Matheus Cunha (72') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Palmeiras 144 points stronger than Internacional. Palmeiras are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Brasileirão Série A 2026.