Too close to call: 36.3% / 27.9% / 35.8%, top outcome 36.3%.
Top of the distribution: Grêmio, 36.3%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -63 and 0. The rating gap itself is 63 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. Neither component contradicts the other: São Paulo leads 0.86-0.79 forward and 0.85-1.00 back. They have met once on record — 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. The leading two outcomes sit 0.5 points apart, which is not a real preference. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.01 and 1.16. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 27 and 26 matches. Played and finished 2-1. A 8.4-point range covers every outcome here. Win-or-lose totals 72.1%; the draw takes the rest. In absolute terms: Grêmio 0.79/1.00, São Paulo 0.86/0.85 on attack and defence. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Before kickoff our model had this at 42.7% / 26.5% / 30.8%. It landed. The higher rating expects 49.7% of the points, the lower 50.3%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Grêmio edged past São Paulo 2-1 on 8 August 2026. Marcos Antônio opened the scoring 47 minutes into the game for São Paulo to make it 1-0. Wallace levelled it 48 minutes into the game for Grêmio, set up by Carlos Vinícius, to make it 1-1. Cristian Pavón put Grêmio in front late on, in the 86th minute to make it 2-1. 7 players were booked, among them Mathías Villasanti (45'), Luciano (76'), Diego Caito (81'), Marlon (90'), André Silva (90') and Walter Kannemann (90'). Our current Elo ratings make São Paulo slightly the stronger side, by 63 rating points over Grêmio, even though it was Grêmio who won this one. Every goal came after the interval. Grêmio won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.