A 219-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 74.6% / 18.1% / 7.3% distribution.
The home side is rated higher. 2-0 leads the scorelines at 12.8% — not a strong call. Top of the distribution: Flamengo, 74.6%. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Rounded, that is 2-0. Neither component contradicts the other: Flamengo leads 1.35-0.79 forward and 0.67-1.20 back. Flamengo sits 56.5 points above the next most likely result. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Ratings sit 219 apart. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on. Raw profiles are 1.35 and 0.67 against 0.79 and 1.20. The forecast we stored before the match was 65.6% / 21.0% / 13.4%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Result on the day: 2-0. The underlying goal expectation is 2.40 for Flamengo, 0.71 for Vitória. A decisive result carries 81.9% against 18.1% for the draw. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 83.7% to 16.3%. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +140 and -79. The distribution runs from 74.6% down to 7.3%.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Flamengo beat Vitória 2-0 on 9 August 2026. Erick Pulgar opened the scoring inside the first 14 minutes for Flamengo, set up by Léo Pereira, to make it 1-0. Bruno Henrique added to the tally 80 minutes into the game for Flamengo, set up by Jorge Carrascal, to make it 2-0. Zé Vitor (44') and Gonzalo Plata (79') were booked. Bruno Henrique scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Flamengo 219 points stronger than Vitória. On current ratings the model favours Flamengo at 74.6% in this pairing, and Flamengo won this one. Flamengo's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in Brasileirão Série A 2026.