A 59.0% / 22.7% / 18.3% split off ratings of 1546 and 1460. Neither component contradicts the other: Cruzeiro leads 1.17-0.90 forward and 0.99-1.10 back.
The home side is rated higher. The underlying goal expectation is 1.90 for Cruzeiro, 1.21 for Mirassol. Expected shares 70.5% against 29.5% on Elo. The model's preferred outcome is Cruzeiro at 59.0%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +46 and -40. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 50.5% / 24.8% / 24.7%. It landed. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.3%. Raw profiles are 1.17 and 0.99 against 0.90 and 1.10. Both figures rest on decent samples, 27 and 27 matches. 77.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The leading outcome clears the second by 36.3 points. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The tie closed out 3-1. A 40.7-point range top to bottom. The rating gap itself is 86 points, which is wide by the model's standards. They have met once on record — 2026, 2-2 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Cruzeiro beat Mirassol 3-1 on 9 August 2026. João Marcelo opened the scoring inside the first 12 minutes for Cruzeiro, set up by Bruno Rodrigues, to make it 1-0. Reinaldo levelled it from the penalty spot in the 27th minute for Mirassol to make it 1-1. Cruzeiro regained the lead through Kaio Jorge 76 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Wesley Gassova added to the tally late on, in the 84th minute for Cruzeiro to make it 3-1. Kenji (48'), Elias (68'), Wesley Gassova (85') and Shaylon (90') were booked. Kaio Jorge and Wesley Gassova scored after coming off the bench. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Cruzeiro are 86 points stronger than Mirassol. On current ratings the model favours Cruzeiro at 59% in this pairing, and Cruzeiro won this one. Cruzeiro won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.