A 61.3% / 22.1% / 16.5% split off ratings of 1489 and 1386. Coritiba holds both halves of the profile — 1.02 against 0.88 for scoring, 1.23 against 1.27 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -11 and -114. The four component numbers read 1.02, 1.23, 0.88, 1.27. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 67.0% / 20.6% / 12.5%. That call matched the result. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. With 27 and 24 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 3-3 in comp-fd-BSA. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Expected goals come out at 1.94 to 1.46. The match finished 2-1. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 9.5%. Someone wins 77.8% of the time by this model. By expected share of the points: 72.5% and 27.5%. The leading outcome clears the second by 39.2 points. The distribution runs from 61.3% down to 16.5%. The home side is rated higher. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Coritiba edged past Chapecoense 2-1 on 8 August 2026. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Coritiba 103 points stronger than Chapecoense. On current ratings the model favours Coritiba at 61.3% in this pairing, and Coritiba won this one. Coritiba won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.