Draw weight is the story: 26.9% of a 31.9% / 26.9% / 41.2% split.
Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 43.4% / 26.4% / 30.2%. The result went the other way. Ratings sit 98 apart. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on. The away side is rated higher. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Most likely single result is Fluminense on 41.2%. Win-or-lose totals 73.1%; the draw takes the rest. Attack/defence pairs: 0.98/1.15 and 1.16/1.00. The three results cover 14.3 points. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.1%. The match finished 1-1. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 45.3% to 54.7%. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -35 and +63. There is no trade-off to weigh: Fluminense scores at the higher rate (1.16 to 0.98) and concedes at the lower (1.00 to 1.15). Fluminense holds a 9.3-point edge on the next outcome. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.45 and 1.81. Neither figure is thin: 26 and 27 matches respectively sit behind them.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.