A 56.4% / 23.4% / 20.2% split off ratings of 1541 and 1474. Neither component contradicts the other: Bahia leads 1.17-1.02 forward and 1.02-1.08 back.
The four component numbers read 1.17, 1.02, 1.02, 1.08. Expected shares 68.1% against 31.9% on Elo. The home side is rated higher. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 67 points. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Versus the 1500 seed: +41 and -26. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-BSA. Between best and worst outcome there is 36.2 points of daylight. Top of the distribution: Bahia, 56.4%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 55.5% / 23.6% / 20.9%. The match did not follow it. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 9.9% leads, but only just. Expected goals sit at 1.88 against 1.40. Someone wins 76.6% of the time by this model. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 26 and 26 rated matches respectively. Played and finished 0-0. Bahia leads the distribution by 33.0 points over the draw.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Bahia and Vasco da Gama could not be separated in a goalless draw on 9 August 2026. Cuiabano (31'), Thiago Mendes (37') and Ademir Santos (77') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Bahia are 67 points stronger than Vasco da Gama.