A 193-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 20.6% / 23.5% / 55.8% distribution.
Result on the day: 0-4. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. By expected share of the points: 32.4% and 67.6%. Win-or-lose totals 76.4%; the draw takes the rest. Behind them are 26 and 27 rated matches. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -79 and +114. 0-1 is the single most probable result at 15.1%, clear of 0-2 on 13.4%. Palmeiras leads the distribution by 32.3 points over the draw. The distribution runs from 55.8% down to 20.6%. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 1-5 in comp-fd-BSA. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 26.4% / 25.3% / 48.4%. It landed. Expected goals 0.69-1.77. The higher rating belongs to the away side. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 193 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-1. Both components point the same way, toward Palmeiras: 1.09 to 0.79 going forward, 0.59 to 1.20 going back. Raw profiles are 0.79 and 1.20 against 1.09 and 0.59. 55.8% goes to Palmeiras, the model's lean.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Palmeiras overwhelmed Vitória 4-0 on 30 July 2026. Mauricio opened the scoring 46 minutes into the game for Palmeiras, set up by Jhon Arias, to make it 1-0. Fabiano Silva (an own goal) added to the tally 51 minutes into the game for Palmeiras to make it 2-0. Jhon Arias added to the tally 70 minutes into the game for Palmeiras, set up by Joaquín Piquerez, to make it 3-0. Ramón Sosa added to the tally late on, in the 84th minute for Palmeiras to make it 4-0. Cacá (37') and Luan Cândido (40') were sent off. Marlon Freitas (14'), Mauricio (27'), Leandro Martínez (32'), Fabiano Silva (56') and Emanuel Brítez (66') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Palmeiras 193 points stronger than Vitória. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings the model favours Palmeiras at 55.8% in this pairing, and Palmeiras won this one. On current ratings the model puts Palmeiras at around 1.77 goals in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Palmeiras are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Brasileirão Série A 2026.