Rated 1460 and 1419, these two produce a 52.8% / 24.3% / 23.0% split. The split is one apiece: Clube do Remo leads the attacking rate on 0.90, Mirassol the defensive on 1.10.
Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 11.5%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 43.8% / 26.3% / 29.9%. It landed. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 2-2 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Elo expected shares: 64.8% and 35.2%. The model's preferred outcome is Mirassol at 52.8%. A decisive result carries 75.8% against 24.3% for the draw. Raw profiles are 0.90 and 1.10 against 0.90 and 1.17. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Expected goals come out at 1.56 to 1.34. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 27 and 27 rated matches respectively. Most and least likely outcomes are 29.8 points apart. Distance between the ratings: 41 points, moderate on this scale. It ended 2-1. A 28.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -40 and -81.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Mirassol edged past Clube do Remo 2-1 on 29 July 2026. Marllon (an own goal) opened the scoring in the 30th minute for Mirassol, set up by Reinaldo, to make it 1-0. Leonel Picco levelled it 46 minutes into the game for Clube do Remo to make it 1-1. Mirassol regained the lead through João Victor 54 minutes into the game, set up by Reinaldo, to make it 2-1. Igor Formiga (17'), Gabriel Knesowitsch (21'), Matheus Alexandre (72') and Zé Ivaldo (72') were booked. Clube do Remo's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Mirassol won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.