On these ratings there is no favourite to name — 37.3% / 27.7% / 35.0%, nothing above 37.3%.
On the Elo curve, expected shares run 51.2% to 48.8%. Top of the distribution: Coritiba, 37.3%. Result on the day: 0-1. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Top to bottom the spread is only 9.6 points. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -11 and +46. Behind them are 27 and 27 rated matches. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 9.3% — not a strong call. The forecast we stored before the match was 49.1% / 25.1% / 25.8%. The match did not follow it. Raw profiles are 1.02 and 1.23 against 1.17 and 0.99. The two ratings differ by 57 points. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. A 2.3-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. Expected goals sit at 1.51 against 1.94. Cruzeiro is ahead on each half — 1.17 to 1.02 in attack, 0.99 to 1.23 in defence. Higher rating: the away side. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-BSA.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Cruzeiro edged past Coritiba 1-0 on 31 July 2026. Matheus Pereira opened the scoring 66 minutes into the game for Cruzeiro, set up by Gerson, to make it 1-0. Thiago Santos (37') and Matheus Henrique (90') were booked. Cruzeiro won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.