1465 plays 1437; the model splits it 50.7% / 24.8% / 24.6%. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 0.98 to 0.79 says Botafogo, 1.00 to 1.15 says Grêmio.
Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -35 and -63. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Top of the distribution: Botafogo, 50.7%. A 25.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The forecast we stored before the match was 50.2% / 24.9% / 24.9%. It landed. The model gives 75.3% to someone winning. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Expected shares 63.1% against 36.9% on Elo. Rating separation comes to 28 points. Its point estimate is 1-1. They have met once on record — 2026, 3-5 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. Played and finished 3-2. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.2% leads, but only just. The higher rating belongs to the home side. With 26 and 27 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Expected goals sit at 1.46 against 1.23. Attack/defence pairs: 0.98/1.15 and 0.79/1.00. Spread across the three results is 26.1 points.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Botafogo edged past Grêmio 3-2 on 16 September 2026. Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira opened the scoring in the 30th minute for Botafogo, set up by Alvaro Montoro, to make it 1-0. Jovane Cabral levelled it in the 36th minute for Grêmio to make it 1-1. Botafogo regained the lead through Alvaro Montoro 52 minutes into the game, set up by Vitinho, to make it 2-1. Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira added to the tally 79 minutes into the game for Botafogo, set up by Alvaro Montoro, to make it 3-1. Gustavo Martins pulled one back late on, in the 88th minute for Grêmio, set up by Tetê, to make it 2-3. Erick Noriega (78') and Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira (90') were booked. Botafogo won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.