On file: 13 previous meetings dating to 2020, 22-15 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-2 in Copa Sudamericana. Today those sides rate 1547 and 1487, 60 apart, which resolves to 55.4% / 23.6% / 20.9%.
The leading outcome clears the second by 31.8 points. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +47 and -13. Win-or-lose totals 76.3%; the draw takes the rest. Mineiro is ahead on each half — 1.01 to 0.89 in attack, 0.81 to 0.92 in defence. The rating gap itself is 60 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. With 27 and 27 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Logged in advance of kickoff — 39.9% / 27.1% / 32.9%. That call matched the result. Its rounded call is 1-0. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-0 at 13.2%. The xG line reads 1.38 to 0.97. Mineiro's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 67.3%. The match finished 1-0. Raw profiles are 1.01 and 0.81 against 0.89 and 0.92. Outcomes span 34.5 points. Higher rating: the home side. Top of the distribution: Mineiro, 55.4%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Mineiro came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding eight. A 1-1 draw at home to Chapecoense (19 September) was their most recent result.
Chapecoense travelled to face Mineiro (Brasileirão Série A) on 19 September. For Mineiro, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 4-2 was Mineiro's result against Santos on 16 September (Copa Sudamericana), playing at home; Mineiro won, with four scored to two conceded. The 12 September fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Mineiro with Fluminense. Mineiro won 3-1 at home, netting three goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Santos (Copa Sudamericana), Mineiro finished 0-2 on 9 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 5 September: Mineiro lost 0-2 against São Paulo away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring zero goals and allowing two.
Mineiro: 8th, 40 points, 27 matches in the calculated Brasileirão Série A standings at kickoff.
Bragantino came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding eight. A 2-1 defeat away to Flamengo (20 September) was their most recent result.
Bragantino's away from home game on 20 September (Brasileirão Série A) ended 1-2 against Flamengo, with one goal for and two against. On 12 September, Botafogo faced Bragantino in Brasileirão Série A: Bragantino drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. Brasileirão Série A, 5 September brought a home meeting with Bahia; Bragantino lost 2-3, a return of two goals scored and three conceded. Bragantino visited São Paulo on 29 August (Brasileirão Série A) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Grêmio travelled to face Bragantino (Brasileirão Série A) on 23 August. For Bragantino, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed.
Bragantino: 10th, 36 points, 27 matches in the calculated Brasileirão Série A standings at kickoff.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-2 draw at Mineiro on 19 August and a 1-0 away win for Mineiro on 12 August.
After the match
Mineiro edged past Bragantino 1-0 on 3 October 2026. Bernard opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Mineiro to make it 1-0. Ignacio Sosa (84') and Fred (90') were booked. Mineiro: 55.4% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Mineiro are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Brasileirão Série A and the 2026 Copa Sudamericana. The card tally for Mineiro was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Mineiro. Bragantino: one yellow card. six changes were recorded for Bragantino. Ignacio Sosa was booked following entry for Bragantino in the 46th minute. Mineiro finished with a clean sheet.