Neither component contradicts the other: Vasco da Gama leads 1.02-0.90 forward and 1.08-1.10 back. On rating it is 1474 against 1460, which the model resolves to 48.6% / 25.2% / 26.2%.
A decisive result carries 74.8% against 25.2% for the draw. Vasco da Gama sits 22.4 points above the next most likely result. As a single number the model says 1-1. The higher-rated side expects 61.2% of the points; the other side 38.8%. Vasco da Gama carries the largest share, 48.6%. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 14 points. Result on the day: 1-1. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -26 and -40. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 26 and 27 rated matches respectively. The distribution runs from 48.6% down to 25.2%. Logged in advance of kickoff — 47.4% / 25.5% / 27.1%. That one did not come off. Raw profiles are 1.02 and 1.08 against 0.90 and 1.10. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Expected goals sit at 1.66 against 1.32. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Vasco da Gama and Mirassol drew 1-1 on 25 July 2026. Igor Formiga opened the scoring in the 30th minute for Mirassol, set up by Reinaldo, to make it 1-0. Carlos Gómez levelled it 80 minutes into the game for Vasco da Gama to make it 1-1. Walter (66') and Nuno Moreira (83') were booked.