Clube do Remo is ahead on each half — 0.90 to 0.79 in attack, 1.17 to 1.20 in defence. On rating it is 1419 against 1421, which the model resolves to 46.0% / 25.8% / 28.2%.
Raw profiles are 0.90 and 1.17 against 0.79 and 1.20. Win-or-lose totals 74.2%; the draw takes the rest. Top of the distribution: Clube do Remo, 46.0%. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Its point estimate is 1-1. They have met once on record — 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. Result on the day: 2-0. The Elo curve splits the expected points 59.0% to 41.0% here. Goal expectation splits 1.61 to 1.24. Clube do Remo holds a 17.8-point edge on the next outcome. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 27 and 26 rated matches respectively. The higher rating belongs to the away side. The three results cover 20.2 points. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The forecast we stored before the match was 42.3% / 26.6% / 31.0%. That call matched the result. Versus the 1500 seed: -81 and -79.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Clube do Remo beat Vitória 2-0 on 26 July 2026. Jája Silva opened the scoring in the 39th minute for Clube do Remo, set up by Mayk, to make it 1-0. Alef Manga added to the tally 54 minutes into the game for Clube do Remo, set up by Zé Ricardo, to make it 2-0. Zé Ivaldo (4'), Cacá (41'), Matheus Piaui (43') and Yago Pikachu (53') were booked. Clube do Remo's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Clube do Remo won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.