A 57.8% / 23.0% / 19.2% split off ratings of 1614 and 1538. There is no trade-off to weigh: Palmeiras scores at the higher rate (1.09 to 1.03) and concedes at the lower (0.59 to 0.86).
Palmeiras's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 69.2%. Win-or-lose totals 77.0%; the draw takes the rest. 57.8% goes to Palmeiras, the model's lean. Goal expectation splits 1.40 to 0.82. The forecast we stored before the match was 64.1% / 21.4% / 14.5%. The result went the other way. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. As a single number the model says 1-0. The four component numbers read 1.09, 0.59, 1.03, 0.86. Scorelines above 8%: 5. First to second is a 34.8-point step, Palmeiras over the draw. They have met once on record — 2026, 2-2 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +114 and +38. Of the individual scorelines, 1-0 carries the most weight at 15.3% — 1-1 is next at 12.5%. Behind them are 27 and 26 rated matches. A 76-point difference on the rating scale.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Mineiro edged past Palmeiras 2-1 on 26 July 2026. Victor Hugo Gomes opened the scoring 54 minutes into the game for Mineiro to make it 1-0. Felipe Anderson levelled it 75 minutes into the game for Palmeiras to make it 1-1. Mineiro regained the lead through Igor Gomes 77 minutes into the game, set up by Alan Minda, to make it 2-1. Ángelo Preciado (31'), Ruan (76') and Renan Lodi (90') were booked. Felipe Anderson and Igor Gomes scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Palmeiras slightly the stronger side, by 76 rating points over Mineiro, even though it was Mineiro who won this one. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Mineiro only a 19.2% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Palmeiras are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Mineiro won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.