Rated 1437 and 1563, these two produce a 28.4% / 25.9% / 45.7% split. Both components point the same way, toward Fluminense: 1.16 to 0.79 going forward, 1.00 to 1.00 going back.
These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -63 and +63. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Most and least likely outcomes are 19.8 points apart. Both figures rest on decent samples, 27 and 27 matches. The four component numbers read 0.79, 1.00, 1.16, 1.00. Most likely single result is Fluminense on 45.7%. Distance between the ratings: 126 points, wide on this scale. It ended 1-1. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 11.8%. Someone wins 74.1% of the time by this model. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. Fluminense holds a 17.3-point edge on the next outcome. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 37.0% / 27.8% / 35.2%. The match did not follow it. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Expected goals come out at 1.18 to 1.58. By expected share of the points: 41.3% and 58.7%.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Grêmio and Fluminense drew 1-1 on 26 July 2026. Hulk opened the scoring from the penalty spot 65 minutes into the game for Fluminense to make it 1-0. Diego Caito levelled it late on, in the 89th minute for Grêmio, set up by Jovane Cabral, to make it 1-1. Hércules (12'), Guga (13'), Thiago Silva (69'), Carlos Vinícius (76'), Agustín Canobbio (79') and Juan Ignacio Nardoni (90') were booked. Diego Caito scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Fluminense 126 points stronger than Grêmio.