1546 plays 1465; the model splits it 58.3% / 22.9% / 18.7%. Neither component contradicts the other: Cruzeiro leads 1.17-0.98 forward and 0.99-1.15 back.
Someone wins 77.0% of the time by this model. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. On expected goals the model has it 2.00 against 1.31. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Attack/defence pairs: 1.17/0.99 and 0.98/1.15. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +46 and -35. Result on the day: 0-1. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 46.6% / 25.7% / 27.7%. That one did not come off. Scorelines above 8%: 2. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 0-4 in comp-fd-BSA. The higher-rated side expects 69.9% of the points; the other side 30.1%. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 9.6%. The model's preferred outcome is Cruzeiro at 58.3%. Between best and worst outcome there is 39.6 points of daylight. Both figures rest on decent samples, 27 and 26 matches. Cruzeiro holds a 35.4-point edge on the next outcome. The two ratings differ by 81 points.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Botafogo edged past Cruzeiro 1-0 on 26 July 2026. Gabriel Pereira opened the scoring in the 41st minute for Botafogo, set up by Alex Telles, to make it 1-0. 7 players were booked, among them Warleson (26'), Victor Hugo (35'), Fágner (45'), Nahuel Ferraresi (45'), Jonathan (56') and Alex Telles (88'). Our current Elo ratings make Cruzeiro slightly the stronger side, by 81 rating points over Botafogo, even though it was Botafogo who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Botafogo only a 18.7% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.