1541 plays 1446; the model splits it 60.4% / 22.4% / 17.3%. The split is one apiece: Bahia leads the attacking rate on 1.17, Corinthians the defensive on 0.99.
The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-BSA; not enough to lean on. The xG line reads 1.72 to 1.07. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Spread across the three results is 43.1 points. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +41 and -54. Neither figure is thin: 26 and 27 matches respectively sit behind them. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Result on the day: 1-1. 95 points of rating separation. Bahia carries the largest share, 60.4%. Win-or-lose totals 77.7%; the draw takes the rest. Expected shares 71.5% against 28.5% on Elo. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. A 38.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. In absolute terms: Bahia 1.17/1.02, Corinthians 0.78/0.99 on attack and defence. The home side is rated higher. Logged in advance of kickoff — 46.3% / 25.8% / 28.0%. The result went the other way.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Bahia and Corinthians drew 1-1 on 26 July 2026. Fabrizio Angileri opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Corinthians, set up by André Luiz, to make it 1-0. David Duarte levelled it 49 minutes into the game for Bahia, set up by Rodrigo Nestor, to make it 1-1. Fabrizio Angileri (16'), David Duarte (19'), Jose Guilherme (28'), Raniele (35'), Bidon (67') and Allan (90') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Bahia are 95 points stronger than Corinthians. Corinthians's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive defeats in Brasileirão Série A 2026.