A 59.4% / 22.6% / 17.9% split off ratings of 1559 and 1470. The edge is split: Paranaense scores at the higher rate (1.15 to 0.89), Internacional concedes at the lower (0.97 to 0.99).
Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +59 and -30. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Higher rating: the home side. The higher-rated side expects 70.8% of the points; the other side 29.2%. Outcomes span 41.5 points. Rounded, that is 1-1. Result on the day: 2-0. Paranaense holds a 36.8-point edge on the next outcome. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. The xG line reads 1.66 to 1.18. The four component numbers read 1.15, 0.99, 0.89, 0.97. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.4% leads, but only just. With 26 and 26 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The two ratings differ by 89 points. A decisive result carries 77.3% against 22.6% for the draw. Most likely single result is Paranaense on 59.4%.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Paranaense beat Internacional 2-0 on 25 July 2026. Leozinho opened the scoring 46 minutes into the game for Paranaense, set up by Kevin Viveros, to make it 1-0. Kevin Viveros added to the tally 60 minutes into the game for Paranaense to make it 2-0. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Paranaense are 89 points stronger than Internacional. On current ratings the model favours Paranaense at 59.4% in this pairing, and Paranaense won this one.