Nothing in the ratings separates these two: 1421 against 1474, 53 points apart, and no outcome clears 37.9%.
3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -79 and -26. The higher rating expects 48.3% of the points, the lower 51.7%. Vasco da Gama holds both halves of the profile — 1.02 against 0.79 for scoring, 1.08 against 1.20 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Vitória carries the largest share, 37.9%. xG: 1.27 to 1.65. A 10.3-point range covers every outcome here. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.3%. Attack/defence pairs: 0.79/1.20 and 1.02/1.08. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 26 and 26 matches. Distance between the ratings: 53 points, moderate on this scale. It ended 1-0. The top two outcomes are within 3.4 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Vitória edged past Vasco da Gama 1-0 on 16 July 2026. Renato Kayzer opened the scoring 69 minutes into the game for Vitória, set up by Diego Tarzia, to make it 1-0. Renato Kayzer scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Vasco da Gama slightly the stronger side, by 53 rating points over Vitória, even though it was Vitória who won this one.