Nothing in the ratings separates these two: 1500 against 1559, 59 points apart, and no outcome clears 37.1%.
No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 12.6%. Ratings sit 59 apart. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Top to bottom the spread is only 9.3 points. A decisive result carries 72.3% against 27.8% for the draw. Honours split: 1.15 forward for Paranaense, 0.85 back for São Paulo. Both figures rest on decent samples, 26 and 26 matches. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.26 and 1.33. Most likely single result is São Paulo on 37.1%. Versus the 1500 seed: 0 and +59. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. The four component numbers read 0.86, 0.85, 1.15, 0.99. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The top two outcomes are within 1.9 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. The higher rating expects 49.1% of the points, the lower 50.9%. It ended 1-2. Scorelines above 8%: 4.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Paranaense edged past São Paulo 2-1 on 23 July 2026. Artur Guimaraes opened the scoring in the 19th minute for São Paulo to make it 1-0. Leozinho levelled it 46 minutes into the game for Paranaense to make it 1-1. Leozinho put Paranaense in front 51 minutes into the game, set up by Lucas Esquivel, to make it 2-1. Arthur Dias (18') was booked.