1460 plays 1437; the model splits it 50.0% / 24.9% / 25.1%. One half each — Mirassol in front on 0.90, Grêmio behind on 1.00.
Neither figure is thin: 27 and 27 matches respectively sit behind them. Between best and worst outcome there is 25.1 points of daylight. The higher rating expects 62.4% of the points, the lower 37.6%. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.7% leads, but only just. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.34 and 1.18. Scorelines above 8%: 5. A 23-point spread sits between the two figures. Raw profiles are 0.90 and 1.10 against 0.79 and 1.00. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. 50.0% goes to Mirassol, the model's lean. Mirassol leads the distribution by 24.9 points over Grêmio. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -40 and -63. The match finished 2-1. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Someone wins 75.1% of the time by this model.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Mirassol edged past Grêmio 2-1 on 17 July 2026. Bruno Oliveira opened the scoring in the 16th minute for Mirassol, set up by Igor Formiga, to make it 1-0. Edson Carioca added to the tally in the 40th minute for Mirassol, set up by Denilson Alves, to make it 2-0. Carlos Vinícius pulled one back 78 minutes into the game for Grêmio, set up by Cristian Pavón, to make it 1-2. Denilson Alves (38'), Walter Kannemann (41'), Gustavo Martins (65') and Leonel Perez (79') were booked.