No separation at all — 34.7% / 27.6% / 37.7% across the three results.
A 3.0-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 11.7%. With 26 and 27 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Raw profiles are 0.89 and 0.97 against 1.17 and 0.99. Versus the 1500 seed: -30 and +46. 37.7% goes to Cruzeiro, the model's lean. A 76-point spread sits between the two figures. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Honours split: 1.17 forward for Cruzeiro, 0.97 back for Internacional. The underlying goal expectation is 1.31 for Internacional, 1.53 for Cruzeiro. Top to bottom the spread is only 10.1 points. Expected shares 48.4% against 51.6% on Elo. Played and finished 1-2. A decisive result carries 72.4% against 27.6% for the draw. The away side is rated higher.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Cruzeiro edged past Internacional 2-1 on 23 July 2026. Kaio Jorge opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for Cruzeiro, set up by Fágner, to make it 1-0. Matheus Pereira added to the tally 64 minutes into the game for Cruzeiro, set up by Fágner, to make it 2-0. Johan Carbonero pulled one back late on, in the 83rd minute for Internacional, set up by Matheus Bahia, to make it 1-2. Victor Gabriel (59') was sent off. 7 players were booked, among them Gerson (16'), Fágner (18'), Matheus Pereira (33'), Alexandro Bernabei (35'), Jonathan (45') and Matheus Henrique (66'). On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Cruzeiro are 76 points stronger than Internacional.