Rated 1563 and 1496, these two produce a 56.4% / 23.4% / 20.2% split. The two halves pull apart — Fluminense better going forward at 1.16, Bragantino tighter at the back on 0.93.
Ratings sit 67 apart. Someone wins 76.6% of the time by this model. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.5% — not a strong call. On expected goals the model has it 1.61 against 1.27. The higher-rated side expects 68.1% of the points; the other side 31.9%. Higher rating: the home side. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +63 and -4. The model's preferred outcome is Fluminense at 56.4%. Final score: 1-1. Spread across the three results is 36.2 points. Both figures rest on decent samples, 27 and 26 matches. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. A 33.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Its rounded call is 1-1. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Attack/defence pairs: 1.16/1.00 and 0.94/0.93.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Fluminense and Bragantino drew 1-1 on 17 July 2026. Eduardo Sasha opened the scoring in the 27th minute for Bragantino, set up by José Herrera, to make it 1-0. Ignácio levelled it in the 104th minute for Fluminense, set up by Agustín Canobbio, to make it 1-1. Ariel Sant'Anna (64'), Fabinho (90') and John Kennedy (90') were sent off. Eduardo Sasha (58'), Vinicius (64'), Henry Mosquera (90'), Tiago Volpi (90'), Ignácio (90') and Juan Freytes (90') were booked. Ignácio scored after coming off the bench.