The edge is split: Clube do Remo scores at the higher rate (0.90 to 0.78), Corinthians concedes at the lower (0.99 to 1.17). On rating it is 1446 against 1419, which the model resolves to 50.6% / 24.8% / 24.6%.
A 27-point difference on the rating scale. A decisive result carries 75.2% against 24.8% for the draw. Corinthians holds a 25.8-point edge on the next outcome. Attack/defence pairs: 0.78/0.99 and 0.90/1.17. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 12.6% — not a strong call. Corinthians carries the largest share, 50.6%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The tie closed out 3-0. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -54 and -81. As a single number the model says 1-1. Outcomes span 26.0 points. Neither figure is thin: 27 and 27 matches respectively sit behind them. Corinthians's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 62.9%. Expected goals sit at 1.36 against 1.21. Scorelines above 8%: 4.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Corinthians comfortably beat Clube do Remo 3-0 on 23 July 2026. Yuri Alberto opened the scoring in the 26th minute for Corinthians, set up by André Luiz, to make it 1-0. Kaio César added to the tally in the 40th minute for Corinthians, set up by Bidon, to make it 2-0. Yuri Alberto added to the tally 47 minutes into the game for Corinthians, set up by Zakaria Labyad, to make it 3-0. Gabriel Paulista (86') and Marllon (86') were booked. Corinthians's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive defeats in Brasileirão Série A 2026. Clube do Remo's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in Brasileirão Série A 2026.