Flamengo rates 1640 to Chapecoense's 1386 — 254 points. Split: 14.6% / 21.4% / 64.0%.
Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Final score: 0-4. Flamengo's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 74.8%. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Expected goals sit at 0.87 against 2.32. Outcomes span 49.4 points. Most likely single result is Flamengo on 64.0%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-2. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -114 and +140. Distance between the ratings: 254 points, wide on this scale. Both components point the same way, toward Flamengo: 1.35 to 0.88 going forward, 0.67 to 1.27 going back. Flat distribution — 0-2 tops it at just 11.0%. 78.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Flamengo leads the distribution by 42.6 points over the draw. The four component numbers read 0.88, 1.27, 1.35, 0.67. Behind them are 24 and 27 rated matches.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Flamengo overwhelmed Chapecoense 4-0 on 23 July 2026. Pedro opened the scoring in the 26th minute for Flamengo, set up by Bruno Henrique, to make it 1-0. Rafael Thyere (an own goal) added to the tally in the 38th minute for Flamengo to make it 2-0. Lorran added to the tally 48 minutes into the game for Flamengo, set up by Pedro, to make it 3-0. Pedro added to the tally late on, in the 86th minute for Flamengo, set up by Samuel Lino, to make it 4-0. Bruno Pacheco (53') was booked. Lorran scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Flamengo 254 points stronger than Chapecoense. On current ratings the model favours Flamengo at 64% in this pairing, and Flamengo won this one. Flamengo's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in Brasileirão Série A 2026.