Rated 1538 and 1541, these two produce a 45.9% / 25.8% / 28.3% split. One edge each: scoring to Bahia (1.17 v 1.03), conceding to Mineiro (0.86 v 1.02).
Neither figure is thin: 26 and 26 matches respectively sit behind them. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +38 and +41. A 17.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.5% leads, but only just. A 20.1-point range top to bottom. Its point estimate is 1-1. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. The match finished 1-1. Their expected shares of the points are 58.8% and 41.2%. Someone wins 74.2% of the time by this model. Rating separation comes to 3 points. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The four component numbers read 1.03, 0.86, 1.17, 1.02. Top of the distribution: Mineiro, 45.9%. Scorelines above 8%: 3. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.55 and 1.35.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Mineiro and Bahia drew 1-1 on 21 July 2026. Ruan opened the scoring 46 minutes into the game for Mineiro, set up by Bernard, to make it 1-0. Ademir Santos levelled it 57 minutes into the game for Bahia, set up by Rodrigo Nestor, to make it 1-1. Jose Guilherme (77') and Erick (87') were booked.