Flamengo enters 180 points clear of Mirassol on rating, which the model reads as 70.6% / 19.5% / 10.0%.
5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Someone wins 80.6% of the time by this model. 2-0 leads the scorelines at 11.9% — not a strong call. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-0. Most and least likely outcomes are 60.6 points apart. 180 points of rating separation. The tie closed out 2-0. The model's preferred outcome is Flamengo at 70.6%. Flamengo is ahead on each half — 1.35 to 0.90 in attack, 0.67 to 1.10 in defence. The xG line reads 2.19 to 0.82. The leading outcome clears the second by 51.1 points. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The forecast we stored before the match was 69.5% / 19.8% / 10.7%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +140 and -40. The four component numbers read 1.35, 0.67, 0.90, 1.10. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 80.4% to 19.6%. The ratings draw on 27 and 27 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Flamengo beat Mirassol 2-0 on 2 September 2026. Jorge Carrascal opened the scoring inside the first 14 minutes for Flamengo, set up by Pedro, to make it 1-0. Lucas Paquetá added to the tally in the 43rd minute for Flamengo, set up by Jorge Carrascal, to make it 2-0. João Victor (66') and Denilson Alves (81') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Flamengo 180 points stronger than Mirassol. On current ratings the model favours Flamengo at 70.6% in this pairing, and Flamengo won this one. Flamengo's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in Brasileirão Série A 2026.