Rated 1465 and 1421, these two produce a 53.0% / 24.2% / 22.8% split. Neither component contradicts the other: Botafogo leads 0.98-0.79 forward and 1.15-1.20 back.
Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -35 and -79. With 26 and 26 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. A 30.2-point range top to bottom. Botafogo holds a 28.8-point edge on the next outcome. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The model gives 75.8% to someone winning. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.0%. Most likely single result is Botafogo on 53.0%. Expected goals 1.74-1.23. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 44 points. Higher rating: the home side. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-BSA. A single result carries no predictive load. Point estimate: 1-1. Final score: 0-0. By expected share of the points: 65.2% and 34.8%. The four component numbers read 0.98, 1.15, 0.79, 1.20.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.