A 155-point edge to Bahia, which the model prices at 67.9% / 20.3% / 11.8%.
The model's expected-goals figures are 2.21 and 1.21. Bahia's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 78.0%. The match finished 2-0. Bahia leads the distribution by 47.6 points over the draw. In absolute terms: Bahia 1.17/1.02, Chapecoense 0.88/1.27 on attack and defence. They have met once on record — 2026, 3-3 in comp-fd-BSA, which is too little history to weigh. The model's preferred outcome is Bahia at 67.9%. Neither component contradicts the other: Bahia leads 1.17-0.88 forward and 1.02-1.27 back. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 9.7%. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. The higher rating belongs to the home side. A 155-point spread sits between the two figures. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 26 and 24 rated matches respectively. Someone wins 79.7% of the time by this model. Spread across the three results is 56.1 points. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +41 and -114. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Bahia beat Chapecoense 2-0 on 17 July 2026. Rodrigo Nestor opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 12 minutes for Bahia to make it 1-0. Román Gómez added to the tally in the 34th minute for Bahia, set up by David Duarte, to make it 2-0. Jose Guilherme (64') and Luciano Juba (85') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Bahia 155 points stronger than Chapecoense. On current ratings the model favours Bahia at 67.9% in this pairing, and Bahia won this one. Bahia won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.