Start with the recent run. Form in 10 recorded matches: 1.3 points per game, 4 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost. Behind it the model carries them at 1451.
Their advantage over the field is mostly attacking. Against the field-average side, that rating would expect 40.3% of the points. Relative to a 47-team field: 68 points below the average rating, scores 0.01 above the mean going forward, concedes 0.14 above it at the back. Taking their 11 recorded matches, the average sits at 1.55 for, 1.55 against. Across their 11 matches in our records, the worst went the other way, 0-3, 3 goals adrift. Across the five newest recorded results: 3 won, 2 lost. In our record of their 11 games, the biggest margin in their favour is 4 goals, from a 4-0. The two halves read 1.07 and 1.12, where a lower second number is stronger. Scoring ran at 1.70 a game with 1.60 conceded. That is 49 points below the 1500 start. The rating stands at 1451, built from 7 rated matches. In our record of their 11 games, the best sequence without defeat was 3. Competition averages use our recorded results from 2025 onward.
In-house elo-poisson-v1 numbers, derived from the complete result corpus.
Team Overview
Haiti have an Elo score of 1451 under our model; they are in the lower half of the World Cup field. Haiti lost to Scotland 0-1; next they lost to Brazil 0-3 and lost to Morocco 2-4. Our match records include goals from W. Isidor (2), R. Providence, L. Joseph and F. Pierrot. Their heaviest win was 4-0 on 3 June 2026 across the 11 matches recorded for them. Haiti's Elo rose 37 points between 25 September 2026 and 5 October 2026, moving from 1414 to 1451. Haiti rate 68 Elo points below the other World Cup sides' average.