A rating of 1590 on 5 matches carries real uncertainty; it is published as the model's current best, not a firm valuation.
Their advantage over the field is mostly defensive. Their 12 recorded matches brought 15 goals scored and 9 against. The five newest recorded results break down as 2 wins and 1 defeat. The run carries a +9 goal difference. Their expected share against field-average opposition comes to about 62.1%. The comparison set contains recorded results from 2025. In our record of their 12 games, they have shut out the opposition 6 times in 12. Taking their 12 recorded matches, at the other extreme they lost 1-3, a 2-goal margin. Split into parts: 0.92 attack, 0.77 defence — on the latter, lower is better. Against the 47-team field they are 86 points clear of mean rating, scores 0.10 below average in attack and concedes 0.26 below it defensively. Averaged out that is 1.30 goals a game at one end and 0.40 at the other. Taking their 12 recorded matches, they have won by as much as 2, taking a fixture 2-0.
Trajectory data exists but is too sparse to plot.
In-house elo-poisson-v1 numbers, derived from the complete result corpus.
Team Overview
Colombia have an Elo score of 1590 under our model; they are in the top quarter of the World Cup field. Colombia beat Uzbekistan 3-1; next they beat Congo DR 1-0, drew with Portugal 0-0, beat Ghana 1-0 and drew with Switzerland 0-0. Colombia are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in that 2026 run. Our match records include goals from J. Arias (2), Daniel Muñoz (2), J. Campaz and D. Sanchez. Colombia conceded 9 goals over 12 matches held in our data, averaging 0.75 per game. Colombia kept 6 clean sheets, a 50.0% share. Our model ranks Colombia's defence 3rd in the World Cup. Colombia rate 86 Elo points above the other World Cup sides' average.