Australia's rating of 1510 rests on 4 rated matches, too few to be settled. We publish it because it is what the model holds, not because the precision is earned.
In component terms: 0.90 scoring rate against a 0.90 conceding rate, lower being better on the second. The peer comparison is drawn from matches since 2025. 1 of the last 4 were won and 1 lost, 3-3 on goals, worth 1.3 a game. Goal difference across the run is level. That is inside the leading 28.5% of rated sides. That is 1268th of 4,449 rated teams, inside the top 28.5%. Averaged out that is 0.75 goals a game at one end and 0.75 at the other. The peer set of 47 teams puts them 4 points clear of average rating, scores 0.12 below the mean forward, concedes 0.12 below it back. The rating stands at 1510, built from 4 rated matches. Most of their edge over the field is defensive.
Trend data has started collecting; there are too few points to show a curve yet.
All figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output rather than a provider feed.