Treat this figure carefully: 1455, but from only 4 rated matches. A rating on that base can move by tens of points on a single result.
Per match that is 1.25 at one end, 2.25 at the other. Form over 4: 1.0 points per game, 1 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost. Current rating: 1455, drawn from 4 matches in the model's corpus. Against competition average across 47 teams — 52 points below on rating, scores 0.03 below on scoring, concedes 0.13 above on conceding. The components behind it are 0.98 for scoring and 1.15 for goals conceded, where a lower second figure is the stronger one. The peer comparison is drawn from matches since 2025. Out of 4,449 rated sides they rank 3530. Only about 79.3% of rated teams sit above them. That leaves them -4 on goal difference across the sample. Of the two halves, the attacking side is where they separate most from competition average.
Trend data has started collecting; there are too few points to show a curve yet.
Source: our own elo-poisson-v1 model, run over the complete match record.