Start with the recent run. Form in 10 recorded matches: 1.8 points per game, 5 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost. Behind it the model carries them at 1478.
Their advantage over the field is mostly attacking. Across their 16 matches in our records, no loss has been wider than 3 goals, in a 0-3. Looking back over their 16 recorded matches, the goal totals are 32 and 16. Against competition average across 47 teams — 41 points below on rating, scores 0.05 above on scoring, concedes 0.14 above on conceding. Current rating: 1478, drawn from 7 matches in the model's corpus. Across the five newest recorded results: 2 won, 1 lost. Looking at their 16 matches on record, 4 without losing is the sample's longest run for them. That leaves them +4 on goal difference across the sample. The peer comparison uses recorded results dated 2025 onward. Looking at their 16 matches on record, per match: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded. Per match that is 1.70 at one end, 1.30 at the other. Against field-average opposition their expected points share is 44.1%. That is 22 points below the 1500 start.
Source: our own elo-poisson-v1 model, run over the complete match record.
Team Overview
Algeria have an Elo score of 1478 under our model; they are in the lower half of the World Cup field. Algeria lost to Argentina 0-3; next they beat Jordan 2-1, drew with Austria 3-3 and lost to Switzerland 0-2. The recorded goals include contributions by A. Gouiri (4), A. Hadj Moussa (2), Riyad Mahrez (2) and R. Mahrez. Algeria scored 32 goals at 2 per game in their 16 matches in our records. Their heaviest win was 7-0 on 27 March 2026.