With only 5 rated matches on file, USA's 1504 is an early estimate rather than a settled figure.
Underneath the single number sit 1.15 going forward and 1.06 going back, the second being better the smaller it is. Peers are measured over recorded results dated 2025 onward. In our record of their 13 games, they average 2.23 scored against 1.69 allowed. 1504 is the current figure, computed across 5 rated matches. Their 13 recorded matches brought 29 goals scored and 22 against. Which is 2.40 scored per match against 1.30 shipped. Folarin Balogun scored a total of 3 goals in the 2026 World Cup. Against the field-average side, their expected share of points is 49.7%. Across their 13 matches in our records, 4 of those 13 ended as clean sheets, 31% of the sample. Looking at their 13 matches on record, the worst result for them is a 1-4 defeat. The attacking component is what puts distance between them and a typical side here. Their five newest recorded results produced 4 wins and 1 defeat. Across their 13 matches in our records, a 3-0 stands as the sample's most one-sided win for them.
A trend needs more stored points than we currently have for them.
These are elo-poisson-v1 figures computed in-house from every recorded result.
Team Overview
Our Elo rating for USA is 1504; they are in the upper half of the World Cup field. USA beat Paraguay 4-1, then beat Australia 2-0, lost to Turkey 2-3, beat Bosnia-H. 2-0 and lost to Belgium 1-4. Folarin Balogun (3), Malik Tillman (3), Sebastian Berhalter (2) and J. Hall (2) scored in recorded matches. USA conceded 22 goals in their 13 matches in our records, averaging 1.69 per game. USA scored 29 goals at 2.23 per game. USA averaged 2.00 points at home and 0.00 away.