The last stretch is doing the work here. 7 of the last 8 were won and 1 lost, 19-8 on goals, worth 2.6 a game. Rating now 1727.
In component terms: 1.27 scoring rate against a 0.87 conceding rate, lower being better on the second. Their most comfortable afternoon ended 3-0. Competition averages here are measured from 2025 onward. The gap to average is carried mainly on the attacking side. The sequence ends on 7 wins in a row. Relative to a 47-team field: 226 points clear of the average rating, scores 0.26 above the mean going forward, concedes 0.16 below it at the back. Broken down by venue: 5-0-0 at home, 2-0-1 elsewhere. Their last five produced 5 wins and 0 defeats. Their leading marksman is Lionel Messi, 8 goals. Position 116 of 4,449 in the model's global order, top 2.6%. Clean sheets number 2, or 25% of matches played. Per match over the season: 2.38 scored, 1.00 conceded. At their most settled they went 7 matches unbeaten. Their heaviest defeat reads 0-1. Goal difference over the run is +11. Scoring ran at 2.38 a game with 1.00 conceded.
Trajectory data exists but is too sparse to plot.
Generated by elo-poisson-v1 across full history rather than republished.