Spain come into view on a run the model can see in the numbers. Over the last 10 they are 9W 1D 0L, 18 scored and 3 conceded, 2.8 points per game since 2024. A sequence like that pulls a rating upward, and theirs now reads 1784.
1784 is the current figure, computed across 15 rated matches. Relative to the field it is the defensive half of their profile that stands out further. They arrive on a run of 7 straight wins. They rank 69 among the 4,449 teams the model carries. Peers are measured over results since 2025. Their 2026 ledger shows 8 played with 14 scored and 1 conceded. The defence has held out completely in 7 of 8 fixtures. Relative to a 47-team field: 284 points clear of the average rating, scores 0.18 above the mean going forward, concedes 0.50 below it at the back. Across the most recent five: 4 won, 0 lost. The run carries a +15 goal difference. That puts them inside the top 1.6% of everything the model rates.
We have started keeping their rating history; it needs more points before it means anything.
Produced by our elo-poisson-v1 model over full match history.