They have taken 1.4 points a game from these 10 recorded matches, scoring 16 and conceding 18. The rating sitting behind that is 1544.
Benchmarked to the 22-team field they come out 4 points clear of average, scores 0.06 above it in attack, concedes 0.16 above it in defence. The scoring record credits John McGinn with 1 goal. Current rating: 1544, drawn from 44 matches in the model's corpus. In our record of their last 40 games across competitions, the biggest margin in their favour is 4 goals, from a 4-0. In our record of their last 40 games across competitions, home and away the record divides into 12-1-6 and 9-6-6. Averaged out that is 1.60 goals a game at one end and 1.80 at the other. The two halves read 1.09 and 1.16, where a lower second number is stronger. Across their last 40 matches in our records, all competitions included, their longest unbeaten stretch ran to 8 matches. The latest 40 matches we have recorded across competitions leave them 63-56 on goals. The run carries a -2 goal difference. Against the 1500 seed they sit 44 points above.
Everything here comes from our elo-poisson-v1 rating, not a third-party statistic.
Team Overview
Our Elo rating for Aston Villa is 1544; they are in the lower half of the Premier League field. Aston Villa lost to Brighton Hove 0-4 during the 2026/27 Premier League, then lost to Arsenal 0-1, drew with Hull City 0-0, lost to Nottingham 1-2 and beat Tottenham 3-2. Our match records include goals from John McGinn, Emiliano Buendía, Nicolas Jackson and Alysson. Aston Villa kept 8 clean sheets over the latest 40 recorded matches across competitions, a 20.0% share. Their heaviest win was 4-0 on 9 November 2025. Their worst defeat was 0-4 on 23 August 2026.