Start with the recent run. 3 of these 10 recorded matches were won and 4 lost, 13-19 on goals, worth 1.2 a game. Behind it the model carries them at 1489.
In our record of their last 28 games across competitions, they have shut out the opposition 6 times in 28. Over five recorded matches: 2 won, 2 lost. Against field-average opposition their expected points share is 48.3%. Looking at their last 28 matches on record across competitions, 4 without losing is the sample's longest run for them. Looking at their last 28 matches on record across competitions, the venue split is 5-4-5 home, 5-4-5 away. The latest 28 matches we have recorded across competitions leave them 37-43 on goals. Against competition average across 19 teams — 12 points below on rating, scores 0.02 above on scoring, concedes 0.24 above on conceding. Of the two halves, the attacking side is where they separate most from competition average. On a per-match basis the same run reads 1.30 scored, 1.90 conceded. Breno Lopes scored 8 goals. The recorded comparison window opens in 2025. In component terms: 1.02 scoring rate against a 1.23 conceding rate, lower being better on the second.
These are elo-poisson-v1 figures computed in-house from every recorded result.
Team Overview
Coritiba have an Elo score of 1489 under our model; they are in the lower half of the Brasileirão Série A field. Coritiba lost to Palmeiras 1-3 in Brasileirão Série A's 2026 season, then drew with Bragantino 0-0, lost to Cruzeiro 0-1, beat Chapecoense 2-1, drew with São Paulo 1-1, beat Corinthians 2-1, beat Clube do Remo 3-2, lost to Mirassol 1-2, drew with Paranaense 3-3 and lost to Vasco da Gama 0-5. The recorded goals include contributions by Pedro Rocha (3), Paulo Roberto (2), Tiago (2) and Rodrigo Moledo (2). Coritiba conceded 43 goals across their last 28 matches in our records, all competitions, averaging 1.54 per game. Coritiba averaged 1.36 points at home and 1.36 away. Their worst defeat was 0-5 on 19 September 2026. Coritiba's Elo fell 31 points between 26 July 2026 and 20 September 2026, moving from 1520 to 1489.