Form first: A 5-1-4 return from 10 recorded matches gives 1.6 points per game, with 14 scored against 14. That supports a current rating of 1470.
Attack reads 0.90, defence 1.02 — remembering that a smaller defensive figure is the stronger one. The rating stands at 1470, built from 46 rated matches. Taking their latest 49 recorded matches across competitions, playing at home they have taken 10 wins, 3 draws and 12 defeats, against 8-7-9 on the road. The peer set of 26 teams puts them 13 points below average rating, scores 0.03 below the mean forward, concedes 0.00 above it back. Dominic Ballard has 3 goals in the scoring record. Across competitions, the latest 49 fixtures in our records total 58 for and 67 against. Goal difference across the run is level. Against the 1500 starting rating they are 30 points below. Across their last 49 matches in our records, all competitions included, the defence has held out completely in 13 of 49 fixtures. Across their last 49 matches in our records, all competitions included, the worst went the other way, 0-5, 5 goals adrift.
A trend needs more stored points than we currently have for them.
In-house elo-poisson-v1 numbers, derived from the complete result corpus.
Team Overview
Bristol City rate 1470 in our Elo model. Bristol City lost to Millwall 0-2 in the 2026/27 Championship; next they drew with Birmingham 2-2, beat Portsmouth 2-1, beat Preston NE 3-1, beat Burnley 2-1, lost to Southampton 1-4, lost to Lincoln City 0-1 and beat Watford 1-0. Dominic Ballard (3), Scott Twine (2), Lorent Tolaj (2) and Jason Knight scored in recorded matches. Bristol City averaged 1.32 points at home and 1.29 away across competitions in the most recent 49 matches we hold. Their heaviest win was 5-0 on 1 January 2026. Their worst defeat was 0-5 on 30 January 2026.