Congo DR's rating of 1488 rests on 4 rated matches, too few to be settled. We publish it because it is what the model holds, not because the precision is earned.
They have taken 1.0 points a game from the last 4, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Set against the 47 teams in the same competition, they sit 18 points below the mean rating, scores 0.03 below its average scoring rate and concedes 0.03 below its average conceding rate. That is inside the leading 46.9% of rated sides. That benchmark window opens in 2025. Goal difference across the run is level. Among all 4,449 teams the model rates, they come in at 2087. The components behind it are 0.99 for scoring and 0.99 for goals conceded, where a lower second figure is the stronger one. The defensive half is the one carrying the gap to average. The model's present valuation is 1488, on a base of 4 matches. On a per-match basis the same run reads 1.25 scored, 1.25 conceded.
Trend data has started collecting; there are too few points to show a curve yet.
Source: our own elo-poisson-v1 model, run over the complete match record.