A clear target at the top of the club Elo ratings

The club ratings leave a clear target at the summit, while sharp rises and costly defeats reshape the pursuit.

The favourite still has a football match to win

Unexpected results give a useful lesson in reading a favourite's probability without treating it as a promise.

The World Cup leaves a clear target in the national Elo ratings

Tournament results give the national ratings their football context, from a narrow final to crowded comparisons below.

Torres rewards Spain's defensive strength with the World Cup title

Ferrán Torres supplies the late difference as Spain turn defensive strength into the World Cup title.