10 meetings sit in the record, first in 2019, aggregate 6-10. The latest was 2026, 1-0 in Botola Pro. Against that, current ratings read 1592 and 1497, a 95-point margin, and the model splits the tie 60.4% / 22.4% / 17.2%.
Higher rating: the home side. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 306 and 156 matches. 1-0 is the single most probable result at 17.6%, clear of 0-0 on 14.4%. Expected goals 1.22-0.72. The four component numbers read 0.79, 0.77, 0.69, 1.04. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +92 and -3. As a single number the model says 1-0. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. 60.4% goes to Ittihad Tanger, the model's lean. Ratings sit 95 apart. Win-or-lose totals 77.6%; the draw takes the rest. The tie closed out 1-0. Both components point the same way, toward Ittihad Tanger: 0.79 to 0.69 going forward, 0.77 to 1.04 going back. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 71.5% to 28.5%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Ittihad Tanger leads the distribution by 38.0 points over the draw. A 43.2-point range top to bottom.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Ittihad Tanger came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding seven. A 2-0 defeat away to FAR Rabat (28 October) was their most recent result.
Ittihad Tanger's away from home game on 28 October (Botola Pro) ended 0-2 against FAR Rabat, with zero goals for and two against. On 14 October, Maghreb Fès faced Ittihad Tanger in Botola Pro: Ittihad Tanger won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one. Botola Pro, 10 October brought an away meeting with Kawkab Marrakech; Ittihad Tanger lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Ittihad Tanger hosted Moghreb Tetouan on 2 October (Botola Pro) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Amal Tiznit hosted Ittihad Tanger (Botola Pro) on 24 September. For Ittihad Tanger, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed.
CR Khemis Zemamra arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording one draw and four defeats, scoring five goals and conceding 11. On 25 October, CR Khemis Zemamra recorded a 1-0 defeat hosting FUS Rabat.
Botola Pro, 25 October brought a home meeting with FUS Rabat; CR Khemis Zemamra lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. CR Khemis Zemamra visited Renaissance Berkane on 13 October (Botola Pro) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Hassania Agadir travelled to face CR Khemis Zemamra (Botola Pro) on 8 October. For CR Khemis Zemamra, the score was 2-5: two goals scored, five allowed. 0-1 was CR Khemis Zemamra's result against Raja Casablanca on 3 October (Botola Pro), playing away from home; CR Khemis Zemamra lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 27 September fixture (Botola Pro) paired CR Khemis Zemamra with Maghreb Fès. CR Khemis Zemamra lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 home win for Ittihad Tanger on 21 June and a 1-0 home win for CR Khemis Zemamra on 8 February.
After the match
Ittihad Tanger edged past CR Khemis Zemamra 1-0 at Stade Ibn Batouta, Tanger on 1 November 2026. Ibrahim dieng opened the scoring 77 minutes into the game for Ittihad Tanger to make it 1-0. Abdel Maali (71'), james ajako (74') and (75') were booked. 60.4% is Ittihad Tanger's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. The card tally for Ittihad Tanger was one yellow card. Ittihad Tanger made four changes. two yellow cards went to CR Khemis Zemamra. The substitution total for CR Khemis Zemamra was five. Ittihad Tanger finished with a clean sheet.