Maghreb Fès enters 161 points clear of Widad Témara on rating, which the model reads as 24.2% / 24.6% / 51.2%.
On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 161 points. Raw profiles are 0.96 and 0.83 against 0.87 and 0.55. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. One edge each: scoring to Widad Témara (0.96 v 0.87), conceding to Maghreb Fès (0.55 v 0.83). 0-0 is the single most probable result at 17.2%, clear of 0-1 on 16.9%. Elo expected shares: 36.5% and 63.5%. It ended 1-0. The Widad Témara figure is drawn from 6 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. Rounded, that is 0-0. Versus the 1500 seed: +38 and +199. Expected goals come out at 0.78 to 0.98. Outcomes span 27.0 points. Someone wins 75.4% of the time by this model. Maghreb Fès carries the largest share, 51.2%. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. A 26.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Widad Témara came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding four, failing to score in three of those games. On 24 October, Widad Témara recorded a 3-0 win visiting Moghreb Tetouan.
Moghreb Tetouan hosted Widad Témara (Botola Pro) on 24 October. For Widad Témara, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 0-1 was Widad Témara's result against Kawkab Marrakech on 18 October (Botola Pro), playing at home; Widad Témara lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 8 October fixture (Botola Pro) paired Widad Témara with FAR Rabat. Widad Témara lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against UTS Rabat (Botola Pro), Widad Témara finished 0-1 on 2 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 26 September: Widad Témara won 3-1 against Wydad AC away from home in Botola Pro, scoring three goals and allowing one.
Maghreb Fès: one win, three draws and one defeat over five games; four goals scored, four conceded. Latest: a 0-0 draw at home to Renaissance Berkane on 29 October.
Playing at home against Renaissance Berkane (Botola Pro), Maghreb Fès finished 0-0 on 29 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 25 October: Maghreb Fès won 2-1 against ASEC Mimosas away from home in CAF Champions League, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against ASEC Mimosas in CAF Champions League, Maghreb Fès scored one and conceded one on 18 October; the at home result was 1-1. Maghreb Fès's away from home game on 14 October (Botola Pro) ended 1-2 against Ittihad Tanger, with one goal for and two against. On 8 October, Raja Casablanca faced Maghreb Fès in Botola Pro: Maghreb Fès drew 0-0 at home, having scored zero and conceded zero.
After the match
Widad Témara edged past Maghreb Fès 1-0 on 1 November 2026. Zakaria Oulbenna opened the scoring inside the first 13 minutes for Widad Témara, set up by oussama essafi, to make it 1-0. Zakaria Labib (46'), Oussama nourdine (53'), Othman Sabri (64'), M. Belkaida (79') and Achraf Harmach (91') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Maghreb Fès clearly the stronger side, by 161 rating points over Widad Témara, even though it was Widad Témara who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Widad Témara only a 24.2% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Widad Témara picked up three yellow cards. The substitution total for Widad Témara was five. Maghreb Fès picked up two yellow cards. Maghreb Fès: five substitutions. Widad Témara kept their opponents scoreless.